Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo called the performance of Apple Intelligence “underwhelming,” adding that it won’t entice people to replace their older iPhones.
In a social media post on Thursday, Kuo reiterated his previous claims that Apple Intelligence would “contribute less than expected to shipment volumes.” In October 2024, the analyst said more or less the same thing — that Apple’s AI features would not facilitate a short-term boost in iPhone sales.
According to Kuo, the market has recently adopted a more cautious view of Apple Intelligence, presumably because of the debacle Apple faced with its planned Siri upgrades. We can already see signs of this, as Morgan Stanley decreased their expectations for Apple’s stock prices, citing concerns regarding the current status of Siri and its postponed Apple Intelligence overhaul.
The iPhone maker was forced to delay some of Siri’s heavily promoted Apple Intelligence features, such as the virtual assistant’s personal context functionality and in-app actions.
Since last year’s WWDC, I’ve consistently held a cautious view of how much Apple Intelligence would boost iPhone shipments. Take a recent case (see link below), just two months ago, I argued that the market was too bullish on 2025 iPhone shipments and reiterated that Apple https://t.co/pntSCTS4f7
— (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) March 13, 2025
Kuo claims that Apple “had already factored in” the “underwhelming performance” of Apple Intelligence when the company shared conservative iPhone sales forecasts with suppliers in early 2025. Apple was presumably aware of the negative impact its Siri delay would have on sales figures.
While Apple Intelligence itself was originally announced in June of 2024, at WWDC, the company’s generative AI features only made a partial debut with the release of iOS 18.1 in October 2024. Apple ran multiple advertisements depicting a new and improved, contextually aware Siri, but these features still have yet to reach end users, undoubtedly causing frustration and negative sentiment.
In January 2025, Apple CEO Tim Cook chimed in on the matter. He said that the iPhone 16 had performed better in regions and markets where Apple Intelligence was available, indicating that the company’s generative AI features were a significant factor for users looking to upgrade.
This was before Siri’s personal context features and App Intents features were postponed, however, making it unlikely that Apple Intelligence will influence iPhone sales in a similarly positive manner going forward. Siri’s personal context capabilities are set to arrive “in the coming year,” meaning that they might only become available with iOS 19.
Apple is said to be working on a massive user interface redesign as part of iOS 19, possibly in an attempt to drive attention away from the slow rollout of Apple Intelligence features. Similarly, a significant design overhaul is planned for the iPhone 17 range, which is set to feature an entirely new “iPhone 17 Air” model with an ultra-thin chassis.
Ultimately, any poor performance and negative public perception of Apple Intelligence if it materializes in the larger market will likely have a more significant impact on the existing iPhone 16 range, as Apple appears to be working on additional selling points for the iPhone 17. The company might opt to relegate artificial intelligence to the backdrop, putting the spotlight on major design changes and new camera-related features.
